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From: Rasmussen Reports
In November, 36.0% of American Adults identified themselves as Republicans; 34.7% considered themselves Democrats, and 29.3% were not affiliated with either major party. That's the largest number of Republicans since February 2005 and the first time ever that Rasmussen Reports polling has found more people identifying as Republicans than Democrats. See the History of Party Trends from January 2004 to the present.
In November 2008, following the presidential election, Democrats held a 7.6 percentage point advantage over the GOP. That means Republicans have picked up a net of approximately nine points over the past two years. That is a somewhat larger gain compared to the Democratic gains from the reelection of President Bush in 2004 to the Democratic takeover of Congress in 2006. However, it is similar to the gains recorded by Democrats during the four-year period from Election 2004 to Election 2008.
In each of the recent election cycles, the victorious party has gained in net partisan identification over the course of the election year.
It is worth noting, however, that the gains are often short-lived. Following Election 2004, the Republican partisan decline began in February 2005. In 2006, the Democratic edge began to decline as soon as they actually took control of Congress in January. Following President Obama's victory in November 2008, the Democrat's advantage in partisan identification peaked in December before declining.
Another point worth noting is that the GOP has the edge today partly because the number of Democrats is barely above the lowest level ever recorded in eight years of monthly tracking by Rasmussen Reports. This supports the conclusion that Election 2010 was less a victory for the Republicans than a defeat for the Democrats. A majority of voters expect to be disappointed by the GOP Congress before 2012. Republican voters overwhelmingly believe Republicans in Congress are out of touch with the party's base.
Rasmussen Reports tracks this information based on telephone interviews with approximately 15,000 adults per month and has been doing so since November 2002. The margin of error for the full sample is less than one percentage point, with a 95% level of confidence.
(Want a free daily e-mail update ? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.
On the eve of the elections last month, the number of Democrats temporarily surged. However, the November totals are virtually identical to the September totals.
The biggest partisan gap advantage ever measured for Democrats was 10.1 percentage points in May 2008. In December 2008, the final full month of the Bush administration, the Democrats held an 8.8-percentage-point advantage.
Between November 2004 and 2006, the Democratic advantage in partisan identification grew by 4.5 percentage points. That foreshadowed the Democrats' big gains in the 2006 midterm elections. The gap grew by another 1.5 percentage points between November 2006 and November 2008 leading up to Obama's election.
The number of Democrats peaked at 41.7% in May 2008, and it was nearly as high - at 41.6% - in December 2008. The number of Democrats fell below the 40% mark in March 2009 and first fell below 36% in December of last year. Rasmussen Reports has been tracking this data monthly since November 2002.
For the last two months, the number of Democrats in the country reached record lows of 35.0% and 34.6%. Prior to those surveys, the lowest level of identification with the Democrats had been 35.1%.
For Republicans, the peak was way back in September 2004 at 37.3%. Since then, until this month, the number of Republicans has generally stayed between 31% and 34% of the nation's adults.
Keep in mind that figures reported in this article are for all adults, not likely voters. Republicans are a bit more likely to participate in elections than Democrats.
The president's approval rating has held fairly steady throughout 2010 as reflected in our month-by-month review.
Republicans continue to hold an advantage on the Generic Congressional Ballot.
Republicans continue to be trusted more than Democrats on most key issues.
Data from our monthly partisan identification survey is used to set weighting targets for other Rasmussen Reports surveys. The targets are based on results from the previous three months.
I recently did a Podcast interview for the series called "Research on Religion". The interview was conducted by Tony Gill, professor of political science at the University of Washington.
You can listen to it here.
I discuss the role religion played in the 2010 midterm US elections as well as a myriad of other topics including the changes within the religious and political landscape over the last few years and the role of Evangelicals within the Tea Party movement.
Here is how Professor Gill describes his Research on Religion Podcast series:
"Our goal for this podcast series is to make scholarly research on religion interesting, relevant and accessible to a broad audience. We intend this audience to include other scholars, clergy members and anyone else who has an interest in religion. The conversational format of our podcast is designed to facilitate a jargon-free discussion of major topics within the social scientific study of religion."
Those Saying U.S. on Wrong Track Hits High Under Obama of 69%
UTICA, New York - President Barack Obama's job approval rating has dropped to the lowest point of his Presidency at 39%, and in potential match-ups with Republicans in 2012, he trails Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush and Newt Gingrich and is just one point ahead of Sarah Palin.
The percentage of likely voters saying the U.S. is on the wrong track is now the highest since Obama took office at 69%.
The President continues to lose the job approval of Democrats, going from 78% on Nov. 15 to 72% in this Nov. 19-22, 2010 interactive poll. His approval among independents stayed at 39%, and is 6% among Republicans.
Overall, do you approve or disapprove of Barack Obama's job as President?
|Obama Job Performance||Nov 22||Nov 15||Nov. 10||Nov. 1||Oct 27||Oct 25||Oct. 18||Oct 14||Oct 11||Oct 4||Sept 27||Sept 20||Sept
Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Obama's approval is also falling among the First GlobalTM generation born since 1979. This age cohort was key to his victory in 2008, but just 42% now approve of his job performance. He continues to do better among women (44%) than men (33%.)
If the 2012 Presidential election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Among independents, match-ups between Obama and Republicans Romney, Gingrich, Palin and Bush are very close. Versus all of these hypothetical opponents except Bloomberg, Obama draws between 36% and 39% of independents. He beats Bloomberg among independents, 26%-12%, but 49% of independents would choose neither. Obama beats Trump with independents, 36%-29%.
Obama wins between 75% and 78% of Democrats versus all opponents except Bloomberg, against whom Obama gets 65%. The percentage of Democrats who would choose neither Obama nor his opponent ranges from 7% versus Romney and 18% versus Bloomberg.
Among Republicans, Gingrich leads with 79%, followed by Romney 77% and Palin 72%. One-half of Republicans would choose Trump over Obama, but 43% want neither. Bloomberg would get only 19% of Republicans, with 74% not wanting either the New York City mayor or Obama.
Pollster John Zogby: "Obama lost support among independents more than a year ago. Now, he is failing to please more than one-fourth of his own party's voters. This is a perilous position for the President. Conventional wisdom calls for him to reach for the center and assume that Democrats will stay with him in 2012. But as we saw in the mid-terms, Democrats can't win without strong turnout from the young and minorities, both of which are demographics that need more motivation than others to vote."
The interactive poll consisted of 2,032 likely voters and has a margin of error of +/-2.2%. A sampling of Zogby International's online panel, which is representative of the adult population of the U.S., was invited to participate. Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion, gender, and education to more accurately reflect the population.
By Paul Bedard and Caitlin Huey-Burns
Democrats would have had fewer losses on election Tuesday if President Obama had embraced a "Christ-like model of leadership," says Ralph Reed, founder and chairman of the Faith and Freedom Coalition. Reed, who used to run Pat Robertson's Christian Coalition, says a good leader is one who provides not just the "bread, but also the bread of life" for his constituents. "Even if you bring the capital-gains tax down to zero," create more jobs, and turn the economy around, he argues, Obama still needs to give an "eternal" set of values, such as opposing abortion and same-sex marriage. So who would be a Christ-like GOP challenger to Obama in 2012? Reed says his friend, Sarah Palin.
Ohio FFC Chairman Ken Blackwell has joined a nationwide grassroots effort to push for a balanced budget amendment in the U.S. Congress. Ken is joined in his effort to do so by U.S. Senator-elect Mike Lee of Utah. Below is the exact text of the proposed amendment. You can learn more about this effort by visiting www.balancedbudgetamendmentnow.com.
Revenues collected by the Congress during any fiscal year shall not exceed twenty percent of the gross domestic product during the previous fiscal year.
No later than six months prior to the end of each fiscal year, the President shall transmit to the Congress a proposed budget for the coming fiscal year in which total outlays do not exceed total receipts.
Total outlays appropriated by the Congress for any fiscal year shall not exceed total receipts for that fiscal year. Total receipts shall include all receipts of the United States except those derived from borrowing. Total outlays shall include all outlays of the United States except for those for repayment of debt principal. The Congress may rely on estimates of outlays and receipts in implementing this section.
The Congress may exceed the limitations imposed by this article only during a fiscal year in which the Congress, by a vote of two-thirds of the members of each house, has adopted a joint resolution suspending those limitations.
The Congress shall have the power to enforce this article by appropriate legislation.
This article shall become effective beginning with the second fiscal year commencing after the article has been ratified by the legislatures of three-fourths of the several states.
Any Member of Congress shall have standing to bring a federal suit to enforce this article, when authorized to do so by a petition signed by one-third of the Members of either House of Congress.
Appearing Sunday on ABC's "This Week," Senator-elect Rand Paul (R-KY.) told host Christiane Amanpour he would push for a balanced budget amendment to the U.S. Constitution.
This is an idea whose time has come. In 1994, Republicans campaigned– and won — on a balanced budget amendment (as part of the Contract with America). Back then; the deficit was just $203 billion. Today, the national deficit is at $1.4 trillion (that's roughly $3,500 for each American, and some $14,000 for each family of four in deficit spending just this year alone).
Most states require their elected officials to balance their budget each year, but no such requirement impedes the reckless spending of the United States federal government. A constitutional amendment would bar the federal government from spending more money than it brings in each year — and require a supermajority in order to raise taxes. This is not a radical idea, but the consequences of failing to enact such a measure cannot be overstated.
Fortunately, as evidenced by the Tea Party movement, there appears to finally be the political will required to get this done. Newly elected Republicans simply must realize they weren't elected to merely "trim" spending or "slow down" the rate of government growth, but rather, to cut, de-authorize and balance the budget. (If they fail to grasp this fact, it will be a short and depressing two years).
It is also worth noting that the conservative movement is united behind this cause.
That Senator-Elect Paul was the one to reignite this debate after the GOP's historic victory on Tuesday is not terribly surprising – he campaigned on this. And though he represents the libertarian wing of the conservative movement (his father ran for president as a Libertarian), his vocal support is indicative of the broad-based support for this amendment.
The financial crisis has galvanized the disparate elements of the conservative movement, just as the threat of Communism united the "three legs" of the conservative movement during the Reagan years (like Communism, the deficit has become an existential threat to our freedom).
As a Senior Fellow for Family Empowerment at the Family Research Council (FRC), I've seen first hand that social conservatives view the economic crisis – and, more specifically, a balanced budget — as a moral issue. Similarly, national security conservatives realize it's a security issue (America's debt is being lent by foreign interests, with China being the largest single holder). This is an issue that transcends the normal dividing lines, and unites us.
Senator Jim DeMint (R-S.C.), a solid full-spectrum conservative who is just as at home at a Club for Growth Meeting as he is at a Christian Coalition dinner, and others, are expected to lead the charge on a balanced budget amendment. The additional Tea Party conservatives who were elected on Tuesday will aid them. But they will need reinforcements.
That's why I have agreed to serve as chairman for a new group, 'Balanced Budget Amendment Now.'
Our organization will launch an aggressive campaign to pass a balanced budget amendment. This will include building an infrastructure needed to enlist a minimum of 5,000 supporters in each Congressional district to urge their Members of Congress to vote for an amendment.
Our goal is to accomplish a vote on a balanced budget amendment by October 1, 2011. (Senator-Elect Mike Lee (R-UT) has graciously agreed to draft the balanced budget amendment language for us — and to enlist the support of his colleagues).
There are many issues vital to our future, but I can think of none more worthy than this effort.
In 1963, Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. spoke of the "fierce urgency of now." I would urge all Americans to consider the urgency of passing a balanced budget amendment.
EDMOND — State Question 755, the president's rocky relationship with Israel and his position on the so-called "ground zero mosque" were some of the issues that drove a record number of evangelical voters, observers said.
Edmond has a large, active faith community, evidenced by various ministries and high attendance at numerous churches of various denominations.
Generally speaking, evangelicals are individuals who believe in the Bible's inerrancy and stress the need for personal conversion and sharing of the Christian gospel.
Nationwide, the largest single voter block in Tuesday's midterm election was self-identified evangelicals who made up 29 percent of the vote, and cast 79 percent of their ballots for Republican candidates, according to a post-election survey conducted by Public Opinion Strategies for the Faith and Freedom Coalition.
"I think that's clearly an eye-popping number," said Gregg Keller, the coalition's national executive director.
In fact, the evangelical turnout, a 5 percent increase over 2006, was the largest ever recorded in a midterm election, the survey found.
Additionally, Roman Catholic voters constituted 12 percent of the vote and cast 58 percent of their ballots for Republican candidates, as opposed to 40 percent for Democrats, according to CNN exit polling.
Keller said before the election his organization made 58.8 million voter contacts to social and fiscal conservatives, including 16 million voter guides, 8 million pieces of mail and 15 million get-out-the-vote calls.
The Faith and Freedom Coalition, founded by Ralph Reed, targeted key races, contributing to the GOP taking control of the U.S. House of Representatives, Keller said.
The health of the economy, government spending, immigration reform and national security were among the primary issues in the election.
However, Oklahoma evangelicals were also interested in SQ 755, and a variety of issues all wrapped up in one person — President Barack Obama, said University of Oklahoma political science professor Keith Gaddie.
Gaddie said at this time he does not have specific numbers about Oklahoma, but he is willing to wager that evangelicals in the state turned out in big numbers, especially in affluent suburbs.
Tom Vineyard, senior pastor at Oklahoma City's Windsor Hills Baptist Church, has been an outspoken critic of many of Obama's policies.
Vineyard said he estimates that close to 100 percent of the voting age members of his church cast ballots on Tuesday. Before election day, many members volunteered in various local campaigns in a variety of ways, he said.
Issues that drove evangelicals to the polls included mounting national debt, government spending, President Obama's perceived ill-treatment of Israel, Obama's stance on a number of social issues and his tolerance of the controversial "ground zero mosque" planned to be built in lower Manhattan, Vineyard said.
Regarding Israel, Vineyard cited Genesis 12:3, in which God says he will bless those who bless Israel and curse those who curse Israel, and that all people on earth will be blessed through the nation.
Evangelicals and Israelis criticized Obama for walking out of a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Later, Obama extended an olive branch to Netanyahu, and the U.S. president made an effort to show American support for Israel.
Obama, along with New York City leaders, supported the right of Muslims to build the controversial community center and mosque a couple of blocks from where the World Trade Center stood before Sept. 11, 2001.
A Time poll found that 61 percent of Americans oppose the project.
Vineyard said the project is a slap in the face to the families of those who died when radical Muslims flew two airliners into the towers, and a mosque should not be built there.
The Faith and Freedom Coalition survey found that 52 percent of all self-identified members of the Tea Party movement are conservative evangelicals.
Keller said before the general election, it was believed that the Tea Party and evangelical conservatives were two separate groups. The survey shows that the election resulted in an historic realignment.
The latest polling data shows that Tea Party members and conservative evangelicals came out in force at the ballot box.
Polls show that 29 percent of voters identified themselves as evangelicals. The pollster Public Opinion Strategies says that made them the largest single group of the election. Seventy-eight percent of them voted Republican.
Fifty-two percent of those who identified themselves as part of the Tea Party also consider themselves conservative evangelicals.
"The socially conservative faith-based vote was the fuel and engine of the biggest midterm victory in our history," the Faith and Freedom Coalition's Ralph Reed said on Wednesday. Reed's group commissioned the post-election survey data.
Polls also show that a bloc of religious voters who usually vote for the Democrats switched sides in this election.
Fifty-four percent of Catholics voted for Republican candidates.
White evangelicals comprise nearly 30% of all voters, Voted 78% for GOP
52% of all Tea Party Supporters are Born-Again Evangelical Christians, According to Post-Election Survey
(Duluth, GA) According to a post-election survey conducted by Public Opinion Strategies for the Faith and Freedom Coalition, the largest single constituency in the electorate in the 2010 midterm elections was self-identified evangelicals, who comprised 29% of the vote and cast an astonishing 78% of their ballots for Republican candidates.
The turnout by conservative people of faith represented a 5 percent increase in evangelical turnout over 2006---enough to eliminate Democratic gains in that year---and was the largest ever recorded in a midterm election. Because the evangelical vote is concentrated in the South and the Midwest, these voters had an exaggerated impact on yesterday's GOP gains, contributing to the vast majority of U.S.
Senate and House victories by Republican candidates.
The survey also found that 52% of all self-identified members of the Tea Party movement are conservative evangelicals. This is consistent with polling data by other organizations conducted before Election Day.
Evangelicals were joined by frequently-church-attending Roman Catholic voters, who constituted 12 percent of the vote and cast 58 percent of their ballots for Republican candidates, as opposed to 40 percent of their ballots for Democrats, according to CNN exit polling.
"People of faith turned out in the highest numbers in a midterm election we have ever seen, and they made an invaluable contribution to the historic results, including the election of a Republican majority in the House and significant gains in U.S. Senate seats, governorships, and hundreds of state legislative seats and local offices," said Ralph Reed, founder and chairman of the Faith and Freedom Coalition. "This survey, along with numerous exit polls, makes clear that those who ignore or disregard social conservative voters and their issues do so at their own peril."
The Faith and Freedom Coalition made a total of 58.8 million voter contacts to social and fiscal conservative voters in 2010, including 16 million voter guides, 8 million pieces of mail, and 15 million GOTV calls. FFC has 400,000 members and supporters and chapters operating in 24 states.