I knew when the “Today” show led one day this week with the story of the custody dispute involving Michael Jackson’s surviving children that the NBC/WSJ poll must portend very bad news for the mainstream media. Sure enough, when “Today” finally got to the story—-18 minutes later, after the weather, news updates, and a story about a murder preceded by a warning to shoo children away from the television—-no amount of spin could change the cold fact: Obama’s numbers were dropping precipitously and health care was the reason why.
No one knows what the future holds and there is plenty of time during the August recess for the ground to shift multiple times, but we may have reached an inflection point in the health care reform debate. Every published poll shows significant slippage in Obama’s job approval and specifically his handling of health care, where his numbers are upside down. NBC News’ political blog, normally in the tank for Obama, said it best: “Speaking of health care, our poll also shows that the more Obama has campaigned on the issue, the worse his numbers have become.”
Indeed, health care is dragging down the Democratic brand. As Byron York points out, “During the Bush administration, Democrats made huge gains in some important Republican areas. For example, on the question of which party would do a better job in handling the federal budget deficit, Democrats held a 19-point advantage in a November 2005 Journal poll, a 25-point advantage in July 2007, and a 22-point advantage in January 2008. Now all that has changed. In the new poll, the results have completely turned around, and Republicans hold a six-point advantage. On the related issue of controlling government spending, in July 2007, Democrats held a 16-point advantage. In the new poll, Republicans hold a nine-point lead.”
A few weeks ago, the media was rapturously writing the obituary of the Republican Party. Now the implosion of Obama and the Democrats because of their reckless policies on the economy, the failed stimulus package, government-run health care, Sotomayor, and cap-and-tax that is restoring the GOP brand on spending and the deficit. This is not enough by itself to turn around the GOP’s fortunes. But it is a huge opening and a major opportunity for the Republicans to regain its credibility on fiscal responsibility that seemed impossible just a short time ago.
Pollster Glen Bolger points out that it isn’t just the top line numbers but the intensity of opposition to Obama that is so striking. Analyzing a recent NPR poll , Bolger observes, “Voters oppose Obama’s health care plan — just 42% favor it, while 47% oppose it….[and] with only 25% strongly favoring what they are hearing so far, and 39% strongly opposed, Obama is losing the intensity fight. Certainly a lot depends on the details of the bill, but voters clearly question whether Obama is more snake oil salesman on health care than he is successful faith healer.
There is more. The NBC/WSJ poll found that 39% (a plurality of the sample) think Obamacare would make health care worse—a 15 point increase since April. Only 41% of the American people approve of Obama’s handling of health care, a number eerily identical to Bill Clinton’s health care job approval number in 1994, prior to the Republican landslide in the off-year elections.
Obama’s response to these plummeting poll numbers, as always, is to try to recapture the lost magic of his campaign. It has been, so far, a disjointed and lackluster performance. The mood music is still there, but Obama sings off-key. This week he traveled to Bristol, Virginia, and Raleigh, North Carolina, where he had big crowds in the 2008 campaign . Smooth, cool Obama sounded petulant. “Nobody is talking about some government takeover of health care. I’m tired of hearing that,” Obama complained. “I have been as clear as I can be. Under the reform I’ve proposed, if you like your doctor, you keep your doctor; if you like your health care plan, you keep your health care plan. These folks need to stop scaring everybody, you know?”
There is only one problem: Obama wasn’t telling the truth. The Waxman bill in the House makes it clear (see pp. 15-17) that persons on existing private health insurance plans are only grandfathered in for the first five years, and only if their employer or insurance policy does not change. After that, they are herded into the so-called “public option,” read: government-run health care. So Obama’s definition of “scaring people” is telling them the truth about his health care plan.
In the end, Obama’s health care problem isn’t fiscal. This is a moral issue. He wants government bureaucrats, not patients and doctors, to make the vital decisions about our health care. And he wants those same bureaucrats to render judgments on the relative value of the lives of our loved ones, especially seniors, in a way that is contrary to our belief in the sanctity of every human life. This is why his health care plan is currently on life support.
To sign the petition opposing Obamacare, go here.
